Investment News · 26 October 2026 · 4 min read
In short: Two US events could move Indian markets in the next ten days. The US Federal Reserve announces its rate decision on 28 October (around 11:30 pm IST), and the US midterm elections are on 3 November. The rupee closed at a provisional 95.22 per dollar on Monday, and foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pulled out ₹48,056 crore from Indian shares so far in October.
The numbers to know
| Item | Latest |
|---|---|
| US Fed rate range | 3.75% to 4.00% (raised on 16 September) |
| Market odds for 28 October | About 90.6% no change, 9.4% a 0.25% hike (CME FedWatch, 22 October) |
| US inflation (September) | 3.7% a year |
| Rupee | 95.22 per dollar, third straight fall |
| FPI selling in 2026 | Over ₹3 lakh crore so far |
| Midterms | All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats |
Why US events matter here
When US interest rates are high, global funds can earn good returns in the US with less risk. That pulls money out of markets like India, which pushes the rupee down and weighs on share prices. A Fed hold or a softer tone usually eases that pressure; a hike or a tougher tone adds to it.
For the midterms, analysts at Wright Research describe two broad outcomes without predicting either. If Democrats win the House, they gain control over spending bills and investigations, but trade and foreign policy stay largely with the White House. If Republicans keep both chambers, further tax cuts and higher defence spending become more likely, which means more US government borrowing. On trade, a September US law allowing tariffs of up to 100% on big buyers of Russian energy, including India, passed with support from both parties, so the same report says a change in House control is unlikely to soften it. India has slowed its trade talks with the US until the picture is clearer.
What it means for you
- Sending money home? NRIs get more rupees per dollar when the rupee is weak; families paying for study or travel abroad pay more.
- Imported costs: A weak rupee and costly crude can keep fuel and some prices high, one reason the RBI raised its repo rate to 5.5% this month.
- Investments: Election weeks can be volatile. Past patterns are not a guide; US Bank analysts call the link between midterms and stock returns statistically weak. Long-term SIP investors usually gain little by reacting to one event.
Dates to watch
- 28 October: US Fed decision, late night India time
- 3 November: US midterm vote; some results may take days
- Daily: FPI flow data and the rupee’s close
Sources
- TradingKey: October 2026 FOMC meeting preview
- Wright Research: How will the US midterms move money between Wall Street and Dalal Street
- ETV Bharat (PTI): Rupee declines to 95.22 against US dollar
- DSIJ: Closing Bell, 26 October 2026
- Federal Reserve: October 2026 calendar
This is a news summary for education, not investment advice. Figures are as reported on or before 26 October 2026; check official sources before making decisions.